منابع مشابه
the illusion of certainty and the certainty of illusion: a caution when reading scientific articles
critical thinking is necessary to read the scientific literature. however, in addition to questions about the science, often one must also question the meaning of the text. this article provides an example of the analyses needed to understand a single sentence. in so doing, it raises several interesting issues of meaning, measurement, statistical analyses, and the form in which results are pres...
متن کاملThe Illusion of Certainty
"BC53(3#3*1!=*?3B;!-1:8!/@/1!<*./!(*8!-BC53(3#3*1!=.-B#3B/!#*:-;!=./(5</(!#A-#! B/.#-31#;!3(!Y/;!#*!(5BB/((8!-1:!#A-#!51B/.#-31#;!*.!:/?-;(!31!-BA3/@312!B/.#-31#;!./2-.:312! 5(/.!1//:(!*.!(*?5#3*1!-==.*-BA!,3??!1/B/((-.3?;!3<=/:/!=.*2./((D!ZA3(!</-1(!#A-#!,A/1! 51B/.#-31#;!-.3(/(!:5.312!-1!-BC53(3#3*1!/++*.#8!#A/!1-#5.-?!./(=*1(/!3(!#*!<-Y/!:/B3(3*1(!#A-#! ./(*?@/!#A3(!51B/.#-31#;D!&1B/.#-31#3/...
متن کاملThe Illusion of Certainty - Paper
Acquisition policy and, even more so, acquisition practice today presumes that certainty is key to success, and that uncertainty or delays in achieving certainty regarding user needs or solution approach will necessarily impede progress. This means that when uncertainty arises during an acquisition effort, the natural response is to make decisions that resolve this uncertainty. Uncertainties ar...
متن کاملThe illusion of certainty and the certainty of illusion: a caution when reading scientific articles.
Critical thinking is necessary to read the scientific literature. However, in addition to questions about the science, often one must also question the meaning of the text. This article provides an example of the analyses needed to understand a single sentence. In so doing, it raises several interesting issues of meaning, measurement, statistical analyses, and the form in which results are pres...
متن کاملAmbiguity , the certainty illusion , and the natural frequency approach to reasoning with inverse probabilities
People have difficulty reasoning with diagnostic information in uncertain situations, especially when an understanding and calculation of inverse conditional probabilities (Bayes theorem) is required. While natural frequency representations of inference tasks improve matters, they suffer from three problems: (1) calculation errors persist with a majority of subjects; (2) the representation suff...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Baylor University Medical Center Proceedings
سال: 2008
ISSN: 0899-8280,1525-3252
DOI: 10.1080/08998280.2008.11928394